The collapse rhetoric isn’t because if the 54->51% R support in isolation, it’s more so that D support in the suburban whites group went from 38->47% as well over the course of 4 years.

Broader point understood though. In a uniparty bourgeois democracy like the US with such an intentionally stunted electoral system the boundaries of electorally viable candidates are defined by the capitalists way, way before any candidate thinks about running for a primary ticket.

It’s why when you see actual on-the-issues polling you get results like you’d expect in the or 60s-40s splits for issues but once capitalists create the electoral abstractions around elected government you see election-gridlock in favor of non-populist-action which results in the coinflippery you call out and downstream austerity measures and further privatization of services.

You’re right about 2016, but in 2020 republicans saw a collapse in the white suburban vote (from 54%-38% in favor of R in 2016 to 51%-47% in favor of R in 2020). The collapse of support in that group was the margin Republicans lost the election on.

It appears the US is also going to have the largest gender gap in voting in the nation’s history this election, so it “makes sense” that the democratic party who is entirely unwilling to decouple from its genocide platform has chosen this sole route as their theoretical victory. The more baffling thing is that they’ve identified this new core group they need to win but don’t even message effectively (abortion) on this flip wedge issue.

In case it wasn’t abundantly clear I think all of these people are monsters- just trying to provide the analysis of how the democrats think they may possibly win.

I think it’s even worse that it was in-store viewing services? I haven’t thought about Mark Robinson since I made that post originally but it’s worth your time reading about because he’s that wild of a figure.

Fetterman’s rabid Zionism is (unfortunately) probably immaterial to PA. PA is a hugely white (74%) older (20% over 65) state whose primary stated driver is economic decline (nothing novel here). The people seem to correctly recognize their quality of life and material conditions are declining, but there’s no real “reason” being presented by dems as to why other than Kamala’s campaign vaguely alluding to price-gouging which she’ll do something? about. Trump messages that the economic woes of PA (everywhere really) is due to migrants.

When the democratic ticket switch occurred people largely decoupled Harris from the Biden administration’s economic policy but consistent messaging from Republicans seems to have wiped that out.

People are feeling their material conditions collapse due to the continued financialization of basically everything under capitalism and neither party provides real analysis/plausible solutions under the existing system so figuring out specific voter grievances there is hard to figure out outside of individual vibes. Democrats are hoping the possibility of a federal abortion ban under Trump advances the white women vote delta past their inaction/various atrocities and Trump is playing towards generic populist racism with romantic fascist idealation.

PA also isn’t a state that I know a lot about relative to some of the other swing states so my analysis is probably lacking here but I’ve tried my best.

Copied from a post I made a few days ago:

This race is the most “who fucking knows” since I’ve followed US elections.

Some things of I think are of note

• AZ and NV having abortion ballot measures should heavily lean dem (someone else here already mentioned this) but are still tossups
• NC’s governor ticket will probably drag Republicans down. Mark Robinson was exposed as a serial gooner (pornshop debt) who is a black Nazi that wants slavery to return (this is not a joke). He strikes me as a worse Herschel Walker/Dr Oz type candidate and I think dems pickup NC because of it. The broader Republican party is trying to run away from him because he’s seen as that toxic
• GA will have the most brazenly corrupt election this side of the century, and that’s saying a lot since their incumbent governor probably stole his own first election already. Their election board will send Trump electors no matter what (unless there is somehow a massive electoral college win for Kamala which I don’t see happening)
• MI goes for Trump on the Stein 3rd party vote and liberals transition from their current state (going mask off) to gleeful celebration of, like, domestic socdem repression
• PA I genuinely have no clue. No confidence whatsoever in a call either way
• Every other state I think is locked in (including WI for dems- this is possibly what I’ll be most gut feeling wrong about)

Republicans take the Senate

I think a 269-269 tie is an incredibly possible situation and I think it would fall under funniest timeline theory (for those reading this results in a Trump presidency due to tiebreaker rules favoring him).

Ask any questions you have and I’ll try to further expand with the few things that have changed (early voting data) since I made that original post.

The dems chosen path to theoretical victory is through a continued huge delta in suburban white women voters (trying to build off of 2020 and 2022 momentum in this group) flipping from Republican to Democratic tickets. They’re performing worse with men across basically every strata available.

Early voting leans dem but those previously huge margins are probably greatly lessened this time around (general trend that early vote is becoming less partisan but still is probably largely in favor of dems)

Georgia changed their rules from 2020 regarding absentee ballots which will likely depress mail-in ballot quantities. Whether those voters instead elect to vote early (GA is breaking early voting records and this is possibly part of it) is yet to be known due to not knowing the inpact of confounding factors like decreased partisanship in early voting trends.

Looking forward to playing this. I really enjoyed base generations and I’ve hears this is the SM3DWorld + Bowser’s Fury version of that game

Factorio Space Age, Monster Hunter Frontier, and Team Fortress 2

Add Qube and Qube 2 if you’re looking for more. They’re about QC quality for comparison.

Also yes I would not head the workshop with a 7 year old but I hope he he’s able to carry you in the future!

While not as good as reloaded, Portal Revolution is still worth playing if you haven’t.

There are also some phenomenal (extremely difficult) portal 2 co-op workshop level series that I had a great time playing through with a friend. I can dig those up if you’re intetested

It’s been another vanilla week for me. Team Fortress 2, Monster Hunter Frontier, and Dragon’s Dogma Online

Play Portal: Reloaded if you’re looking for more fun puzzle games

In case this was asked in earnest, yes- it happens all the time. Nintendo releases have been notoriously leaky for about 3 years now

This user is the number one reason why we should defederate from hexbear. They’re always posting in response to my reactions and endlessly sourcing and patiently explaining their tankie ways.

I fear that letting them post more may spread communism. I rank them as the number 4 threat behind Cuba to NATO.

Silver the Hedgehog is woke DEI garbage

Can someone check if the JumpStart games are woke? Specifically the typing one. Trying to make sure I wasn’t groomed into being a commie.

LeapFrog games too please

The civil engineer who designed radical highway should be fired

Chaos spear is even dumber

As someone who bet a decent bit on 2022 midterms predictit is an entirely irrational market with nowhere near the volume needed for looking at actual trends. I made more money selling news there than actually making good predictions.

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Throwback Thursday to when the US thought it was about to be under orbital bombardment by some off-current chinese weather balloons and a middle school weather project