You would think that RAM manufacturers would ramp up production. Hopefully the fact that they aren’t means the bubble is going to burst within a couple of years.
I doubt it will take a couple years. They’re burning through so much cash right now that they’ll be bankrupt in a couple years and despite sunk cost fallacy they won’t let it get that bad. At some point they’ll cut their losses and pivot to some other new fad. The small handful of uses that make sense will stick around and a few companies will be in just the right place to make it turn a profit but the vast majority won’t. Some will go bankrupt (if we’re lucky Meta and/or X will be one of them) and some will just write it off as a failed experiment. Either way just as hard as prices spiked we’ll see them cratering before they rebound back to normal. Six months would be highly optimistic, but a year probably isn’t out of the question.
Of course all of this might be moot if Shitler manages to start WW3 by attacking Greenland. If that happens RAM prices will be the least of everyone’s worries.
Of course all of this might be moot if Shitler manages to start WW3 by attacking Greenland. If that happens RAM prices will be the least of everyone’s worries.
Which WW3? You really mean European militaries won’t back out when threatened? Suppose Shitler kills a few Danish hikers in camouflage with professional pride. Nothing will happen, he’ll just take it.
I swear. For a big war based on alliances and rules to happen you need principles and institutions of the military sort.
It takes time to build factories, the big three RAM manufacturers apparently think AI is a bubble, although that could just be an excuse for price fixing.
China’s cxmt is apparently ramping up production, but they’re still relatively small.
China is pushing hard to make their domestic brands the new standard world wide so they’re not worried about whether the bubble pops or not. They want to drive prices down even if that means selling at a loss because they know that’s what it’s going to take to dislodge the entrenched players. For better or worse it’s likely a winning strategy because the existing players are more concerned with maximizing their quarterly profits rather than meeting any kind of consumer demand or indeed even selling to consumers at all.
You would think that RAM manufacturers would ramp up production. Hopefully the fact that they aren’t means the bubble is going to burst within a couple of years.
I doubt it will take a couple years. They’re burning through so much cash right now that they’ll be bankrupt in a couple years and despite sunk cost fallacy they won’t let it get that bad. At some point they’ll cut their losses and pivot to some other new fad. The small handful of uses that make sense will stick around and a few companies will be in just the right place to make it turn a profit but the vast majority won’t. Some will go bankrupt (if we’re lucky Meta and/or X will be one of them) and some will just write it off as a failed experiment. Either way just as hard as prices spiked we’ll see them cratering before they rebound back to normal. Six months would be highly optimistic, but a year probably isn’t out of the question.
Of course all of this might be moot if Shitler manages to start WW3 by attacking Greenland. If that happens RAM prices will be the least of everyone’s worries.
Which WW3? You really mean European militaries won’t back out when threatened? Suppose Shitler kills a few Danish hikers in camouflage with professional pride. Nothing will happen, he’ll just take it.
I swear. For a big war based on alliances and rules to happen you need principles and institutions of the military sort.
Im sure china will and the tradional manufacturers will cry about losing market share while begging for tarrifs and handouts.
It takes time to build factories, the big three RAM manufacturers apparently think AI is a bubble, although that could just be an excuse for price fixing.
China’s cxmt is apparently ramping up production, but they’re still relatively small.
China is pushing hard to make their domestic brands the new standard world wide so they’re not worried about whether the bubble pops or not. They want to drive prices down even if that means selling at a loss because they know that’s what it’s going to take to dislodge the entrenched players. For better or worse it’s likely a winning strategy because the existing players are more concerned with maximizing their quarterly profits rather than meeting any kind of consumer demand or indeed even selling to consumers at all.
They are ramping up production. But it all goes to AI data centers.
No small ask. New factories, new supply chains, more staff, etc.